not based upon logic, does not usage all easily accessible information, does not think about all alternatives, and dost not usage proper decision modeling techniques
1. define problem2. list alternatives3. recognize possible outcomes4. list payoffs5. pick and use decision evaluation model
decision makers recognize for certain the payoff for eexceptionally decision alternative; typically there is just one outcome for each alternate. future outcomes are known
decision devices have actually no indevelopment at all about the miscellaneous outcomes; they execute not recognize the likelihood that a specific outcome will certainly occur. numerous outcome have the right to occur.
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decision makers have actually some understanding about the probcapability of occurrence of each outcome. a number of outcomes have the right to happen as a result of a decision or different, probabilities of the outcomes are well-known.
selects the decision alternative that maximizes the maximum payoff over all alternatives; find max payoff for each alternate and select alternative through greatest payoff.
finds the alternate that maximizes the minimum payoff over all decision alternatives; locate min payoff for each alternative and pick alternative via highest possible payoff.
provides a damage between optimistic and pessimistic decisions. also called weighted average criterion
measures the decision maker"s level of optimism regarding the future; dedetailed by alpha via a worth in between 0-1.
finds the decision different that has actually the highest average payoff; first calculate average payoff for each different and also pick the alternate via max avg payoff. places an equal weight on all outcomes
based upon opportunity loss- the distinction in between the optimal payoff and also the actual payoff obtained.
computed as the weighted average of all feasible payoffs for that alternative, wbelow the weights are the probabilities of the different outcomes.
EMV represents the long-run _____ payoff, while the _____ payoff from a decision is provided in the decision table
computed as the weighted average of all possible regrets for that alternate, wbelow the weights are the probabilities of the various outcomes
consists of nodes and also arcs, simply choose a network-related. presents the decision options and outcomes in a sequential manner
a table in which decision options are provided dvery own the rows and also outcomes are provided across the columns. the body of the table consists of the payoffs.
have actually arcs (lines) that denote all decision choices easily accessible to the decision maker at that node. of these, the decision maker have to select just one alternate.
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have arcs that signify all outcomes that might take place in that node. of these, only one outcome will certainly actually take place.